The English page - Our predictions spot on

We hope that our readers followed our predictions in last week´s English page, as they were spot on in the two most important races of the weekend. The top events worldwide were run on Saturday evening local time at Meydan during the Dubai World Cup meeting. At the time in 1996, the race was intended to be the richest race in the world; this is no longer the case – the Saudi Cup now has that honour. The winner in 1996 was Cigar, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Jerry Bailey. An all American success and the early editions by horses trained in the U.S. or U.K. They were run at the racecourse at Nad al Sheba and the present course was at Meydan was opened in 2010. The next year, I.e. 2011, it was won by the Japanese-trained Victoire Pisa, which was regarded as a sensation.

However the world has moved on since then and nowadays Japanese victories in the top International races have become quite common, as for example in Saudi Arabia a month ago. So we felt quite confident in predicting a Japanese win again this time, and so it proved. Ushba Tesoro (Orfevre) duly delivered the goods in convincing style. We well remember his sire Orfevre, one of several Japanese raiders to have finished runner-up in the Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe; it has long been a standing joke in the world of international racing that a Japanese favourite will finish second in the Arc. We really expect this to happen this year, if not with the Meydan winner, then with the impressive Equinox (Kitasan Black), who made all to win the DubaI Sheema Classic, the main race on the undercard. So our prediction this week is that a Japanese runner will win the Arc in 2023.

Last weekend we had the first black type race of the year in Germany, the listed Preis von Fortuna/Grand Prix Aufgalopp at Düsseldorf on what was easily the best card of the year so far in Germany. Once again we were spot on with our prediction, that Assistent (Sea The Moon) and Mansour (Tai Chi) were the two to follow, and they finished respectively first and second. As expected Mansour, a strong front-runner, set the pace and still had a comfortable lead coming into the straight. The rest were well bunched up. but Assistent came out of the pack with a strong late challenge and cut down the leader easily enough to take the lead well inside the final furlong and score by half a lengths and twelve (!); this was a pretty strong performance by them both and they are both entered in the Group Two Carl Jaspers-Rennen at Cologne on April 23rd. as is Dato (Mount Nelson).who finished a distant third this time.

This coming Sunday we have two meetings in Germany, at Mülheim and Mannheim, but to be honest, the cards are much weaker than at Düsseldorf last week and the races generally have much small fields than has been the case so far. This seems to apply to most of Europe so far this year. And indeed most of the early season black type racess here have had to be reopened because of the very small entries. However it will not take belong before the season really charges into top gear. In the U.K. we have this Saturday what is normally regarded as the official start of the flat season at Doncaster this Saturday, while we have already passed this stage in France and Ireland. The Craven meeting at Newmarket is in three weeks´time, and the Guineas meeting a fortnight later. We shall plenty to write about in April, even in Germany, where the season always takes longer to get going. Our first group race in Germany is the Frühjahrs-Meile at Düsseldorf on April 16th, not so far away.

David Conolly-Smith