The English page - Cheltenham next week

Although flat racing is now really getting into gear in Europe - Saint Cloud opened the Paris season today (Thursday) – it is still National Hunt racing that grabs the headlines, especially with the all-important Cheltenham meeting starting next Tuesday. However first some positive news from Down Under: Reliable Man had two group winners last weekend in Australia, while the New Zealand Derby was won by Asterix (Tavistock out of a Shirocco mare) with the filly La Crique (Vadamos) runner-up. Reliable Man spends the European season at Gestüt Röttgen, where he stands for a very reasonable 6,500 euros. It is fair to say that he has had more success down under where he has already had several Group One winners (e.g. Miami Bound, Inspirational Girl and Sentimental Miss) but his record in Europe is also pretty decent and includes German group race winners Adrian, Akribie and Erasmus. Vadamos, one of the best sons of Monsun, also spent time in New Zealand but is now based at Coolmore´s Grange Stud covering mainly N.H. mares for a fee of 6,000 euros; at 11 years of age, he is relatively young for a stallion and we think he has a great future in front of him.

Another distant German-bred group race winner on the flat last week was Virginia Joy (Soldier Hollow), who scored at Gulfstream Park. She was one of the best German 3yo fillies in 2020 and finished third in the Preis der Diana when still trained by Marcel Weiss for her breeders Gestüt Auenquelle. She was then sold at the Arqana Arc sale for 975,000 euros and is now owned by well-known US owner-breeder Peter Brant and is currently in training with Chad Brown.

Shirocco, who features regularly in these pages, has had many good winners (including Group One) on the flat, but is now mainly known as a N.H. sire and is also based in Ireland, at the Rathbarry Stud. He has had more winners this week over hurdles, but his crowning success remains Annie Power, winner of the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham and four more Grade One races. This week we have seen several more winners over jumps by stallion sons of Monsun, including Schiaparelli, Getaway, Ocovango, Network, Arcadio, Bathyrhon and Maxios.

The last-named was responsible for the possibly most unusual winner of the week, Whymper, who scored at Compiegne on Tuesday. This was a valuable race (with 50,000 euros in prize-money) for 3yo´s over hurdles (!). It is very early in the year for the classic crop to be running over jumps, but the French are much more precocious in this respect than their British and Irish colleagues, who will not be running 3yo´s over jumps until the late summer. Whymper is of especial interest as he was bred by Gestüt Fährhof and is out of Wurfspiel (Lomitas) and hence a member of the highly influential Ravensberg “W” family and closely related to German Derby winner Waldpark and also Arc winner Waldgeist. He won very easily by 7 lengths on Tuesday and it will be interesting to see how high he goes.

Attention now turns to the Cheltenham N.H. Festival, which starts on Tuesday. Although in our opinion the current Cheltenham hysteria is exaggerated, there is no doubt that this meeting holds a special place in the British and Irish calendar. To start with, it is by far the biggest betting meeting of the year. The Grand National, in early April at Aintree, remains the race with the biggest betting turnover, but this is because it is the race for once-a-year punters, housewives and office sweepstakes. However the next 15 races on the list for the highest betting are all run at Cheltenham next week, and they include not only the championship races, but also novice events and handicaps. Every single race is highly competitive and the Anglo-Irish rivalry adds extra spice. In recent years the Irish have held the upper hand, and they probably will again this year, but nothing is set in stone and the races still have to be run and won.

The golden rule for betting at Cheltenham is to avoid the hot favourites. Of course they sometimes win, but not often enough to make it worthwhile. Anyone betting the favourites blind is certain to come out a big loser on the week. A recent survey in the Racing Post, showed that of 34 odds-on favourites in recent years, less than half actually won. There are various reasons for this; Cheltenham is a very tough course, it is hilly with a steep uphill finish (much steeper than it looks on TV). It is also left-handed, while the top southern tracks in the U.K., Ascot, Newbury Sandown and Kempton, are mainly right-handed and flat. The best form at Cheltenham is always form shown at the track, and if possible at the same meeting as a year ago. This writer remembers that when he first began to follow racing seriously, 60 years ago, there were 18 races at the meeting (compared to 28 now) and in 1962 not a single favourite won.

This year the weather has been generally kind, and although there could be some rain over the weekend, the going on the opening day is most likely to be good to soft, i.e. ideal. However it still remains highly likely that there will be some shock results. That being said, we certainly the first day´s banker to score; that is the wonderful mare Honeysuckle (Sulamani), the reigning champion and arguably the most popular horse in training in Britain and Ireland. She is of course trained in the latter country by Henry de Bromhead and will be partnered as usual by the equally wonderful Rachael Blackmore; this dream team is so far undefeated in 14 races and it will be a miracle if another runner stops them from making it 15. She is not German-bred, but has a strong German element in her pedigree as her dam First Royal (Lando) was German-bred and hails from a family that enjoyed great success for the Ostermann and Leisten families.

It would also come as no great surprise to see two more runners with German elements in their pedigrees in the field of 10 prove to be her main rivals. Teahupoo (Masked Marvel) is much improved this season and looks a good each way bet; his sire – despite the name- is another member of the Ravensberg “W” family responsible for Waldpark and Waldgeist in recent years. He has won 6 of his 7 starts over hurdles and any more rain would certainly be to his advantage. He is trained in Ireland by Gordon Elliott, while another 5yo, the Schlenderhan-bred Adagio (Wiener Walzer) looks the main British hope. Trained by David Pipe he was runner-up here last year in the Triumph Hurdle and has always shown his best form at Cheltenham; however he probably has to find a couple of pounds to defeat the two Irish hopes.

Wednesday´s big race is the Queen Mother Champion Chase over two miles, which could well be a thriller. Nicky Henderson´s Shishkin is the likely favourite bur faces a strong challenge from two Willie Mullins-trained hopes, Energumene and Chacun Pour Soi. Shishkin and Energumene fought out a fantastic finish at Ascot in January, with the former just getting the upper hand, but the latter could well reverse the form here. Shishkin is by Sholokhov, who now stands in Ireland but began his stud career at Gestüt Etzean. For a possible long shot to beat the favourites we like Venetia Williams´ Funambule Sivola, who is by the Monsun stallion Noroit, trained many years ago by Wolfgang Figge here in Munich.

We shall look at the results of the first two days of the Cheltenham meeting next week, and certainly hope to be able to report successes for some of the above.

David Conolly-Smith