The English page - Soft going at Hamburg?

Last weekend, which saw the running of the two major classics in both England and France, as well as other top races, saw some good results for German breeding as well as a number of near misses. Alpine Star, the Niarchos-bred daughter of Sea The Stars, who had given that Görlsdorf-bred stallion his first Group One winner at Royal Ascot two weeks earlier, came very close to winning the much more prestigious Prix de Diane, but after leading for much of the way, just lost out in a four-way photo finish, finishing second, beaten a short neck. In the less prestigious Italian Oaks the same afternoon, Memphis  (Jukebox Jury) was defeated by the same margin; there was however consolation for her Hoppegarten-based trainer Roland Dzubasz, as his 3yo filly Stex (Lord of England) ran out a ready winner of the Group Three Premio del Giubileo.  There was also consolation for Sea The Moon when his son Pondus was an easy winner of the listed Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon on Tuesday. Pondus, bred by Kirsten Rausing, who also stands Sea The Moon at her Lanwades Stud, is owned by Australian Lloyd Williams, which means that the Melbourne Cup, the race this owner loves above all others, is very likely to be his long term target.

Two of Germany´s top races of 2019 also had their form boosted. Godolphin´s Ghayyaith (Dubawi), the spectacular winner of the Grosser Preis von Baden, followed up his easy Coronation Cup win by defeating champion Enable in last Sunday´s Eclipse Stakes. The 5yo is arguably now the best older horse in Europe and is to run next in York´s Juddmonte International Stakes, again over ten furlongs, a distance which seems ideal for this strong front-runner. His poor performance in last year´s Arc can be put down to the very soft going at Longchamp that day.

The Lancashire Oaks at Haydock, where the ground was soft, was won by Manuela de Vega (Lope de Vega), who scored by 5 ½ lengths; she is now unbeaten in two starts (both group races) this year after  finishing last season with her close second place in the Grosser Preis von Bayern. The German Oaks (Preis der Diana) was also in people´s minds following the running of the BBAG Diana Trial at Mülheim (a track where the Preis der Diana used to be staged); this saw another strong front-running performance by the winner Tabera (Gleneagles), bred and owned by Litex Commerce, i.e. Bulgarian businessman Grischa Gantchev, and trained in Cologne by his compatriot Miltcho Mintchev. Tabera, whose dam Temida (Oratorio) won the Grosser Preis von Bayern in 2012 – when it was still run in August , rather than as now in the autumn – looks the real deal and is now quoted as 7-2 favourite for the Preis der Diana itself, to be run at Düsseldorf on August 2^nd.

That race is still three weeks away and of more immediate concern is the Hamburg Derby meeting, which begins today (Friday). It will be a most unusual Derby meeting, concentrated into three days instead of the normal seven, and with no spectators (other than owners and trainers and Hamburg race club members) allowed on the course. In the old days, we in the press room were always told that there were 40,000 racegoers present, which was certainly an exaggeration, but equally a far cry from the likely attendance this weekend. This writer has been to every German Derby since 1976 (except for 1999, when he was in hospital) and knows from experience that there are only two possible kinds of weather in Hamburg in early July: either a scorching and unbearable heatwave, or non-stop rain. The latter seems to be the case this year, and after rain on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (and a lot of it), the going seems almost certain to be very soft.

This could lead to another problem. There are 11 races today Friday, 12 tomorrow Saturday, and the Derby is due to go off on Sunday at 16.07 local time, as the ninth race on the card. In other words, it will be the 30th race to be run on the track in about 53 hours. If any more rain falls, the track will by then be in a poor state.

The track at Hamburg is flat, and there is a long straight. To win the German Derby you not only need a horse with the required class, you also need plenty of stamina. Looking now at Sunday´s field, it seems clear that several of the leading contenders- are unlikely to stay the full Derby distance, especially as there is bound to be a strong pace on the likely testing going. A good draw also helps; 1 and 2 are always risky, while 14 and up are definitely a disadvantage, as the field reaches the first, and rather sharp, bend in less than two furlongs; if your horse is trapped seven wide, then his chances will be very slim.

Clear favourite is Wonderful Moon (Sea The Moon), bred by Görlsdorf, trained by Henk Grewe,who has four runners and whose 3yo´s have been winning most of the top races since racing restarted. He was champion trainer here last year, both by number of races won and by winnings, and Wonderful  Moon was Germany´s top-rated juvenile last season after his unlucky second place in the Preis des Winterfavoriten and then his wide margin success in the Ratibor-Rennen. In those two races he met several of this Sunday´s opponents, and he also met several more in his two starts in 2020, both of which he won. They were the Cologne Classic over 2100 metres and the Union-Rennen, normally fhe best Derby trial, over 2200 metres. In both races Grocer Jack (Oasis Dream), a homebred of Dr. Christoph Berglar who is trained by Waldemar Hickst in Cologne was runner-up. In both 2019 and last year, the first two from the Union-Rennen later occupied the same two positions in the Derby. Wonderful Moon obviously has the best form in the race, he is clear top-rated by 5 pounds and he has a perfect draw in 4. So, what´s not to like?

Well, there has to be a doubt regarding his stamina. He defeated Grocer Jack much more easily on the first occasion they met year than he did five weeks later over a slightly longer trip. In fact he had quite a hard race in the Union-Rennen, and it is by no means certain that he can defeat Grocer Jack over a furlong further. Grocer Jack himself is by Group One winning sprinter Oasis Dream (Green Desert), but his dam Good Donna (Doyen) was a Group Three winner over 2200 metres, which should help.

The racecard lists the runners in the order of their official rating, so that Wonderful Moon logically has the number one and Grocer Jack the two. Theoretically this means that they should finish first and second again, but, for the above reasons, I have my doubts.<<in fact onls top-rated horses have won this race since 1981. Number three is Soul Train (by the late lamented Manduro, the best son of Monsun, a clear influence for stamina), but he is from a very speedy Brazilian family, with his dam winning a Group One event in Brazil over 1500 metres. He was never entered in the Derby because of his stamina doubts, but trainer Andreas Wöhler supplemented him for the race on Monday at a cost of 65,000 euros to the owner. Wöhler has trained five winners of the Derby and clearly knows what is required<; one has to respect his judgement, but still….

Henk Grewe has three more irons in the fire, and they are also not without a chance. Adrian (Reliable Man) was runner-up to Soul Train at Baden-Baden, with several more of these runners further back, but is reported to have come on a lot since. He should stay, and so should Dicaprio (Adlerflug), who won Munich´s Derby trial in impressive fashion; it poured with rain that day so the conditions should be no problem. Soul Train was not the only horse to be supplemented on Monday, Kellehan (Wiesenpfad) was the other one. He is arguably the most improved 3yo in Germany this year, having won all four of his starts, showing better form each time, and has seen his official rating rise by no less than 22 kilos. Last time out, he made all the running to win decisively at Hanover; that was a listed race, but in fact it was a relatively poor race for the grade and he will have to improve again to have a chance in this much better event. After Hanover he was sold to Hans-Gerd Wernicke´s Stall Salzburg for a reported 400,000 euros, although he will still run in the Derby for his original trainer Sarka Schütz (Hoppegarten) and will again be ridden by Andre Best; neither Schütz nor Best has ever  won the Derby, or come even near, but that is no reason to discard them. No grey has ever won the race either but the above-mentioned Adrian clearly has a chance.

Finally, there are the two foreign runners, both trained in France but German-owned. Christophe Ferland runs Frohsim (Dabirsim), owned by Munich bookmaker Simon Springer; he has won twice this year and has also been twice placed in listed races, including over the Derby distance. He must be taken seriously, but preference is for the Schlenderhan homebred In Swoop (Adlerflug), trained by Francis-Henri Graffard. He was third in the Prix Greffulhe last time, which is certainly good form, and has the ideal pedigree: his sire Adlerflug (In The Wjngs) was an easy winner of the German Derby in 2007, when there had also been lots of rain, and his dam Iota (Tiger Hill) won the Preis der Diana in 2005, when it was run at Hamburg, and also on the soft. Schlenderhan has won the German Derby 18 times;  number 19 could now be coming up and this runner ticks most of the boxes.

David Conolly-Smith