The English page - All eyes on Paris

Thoroughbred Racing Commentary publishes every week its TRC Global Rankings, in which the leading human and equine performers worldwide are ranked according to a complicated points system based on results of the top races, mainly Group Ones, from all over the world. The aim is to establish a pecking order of the world´s most successful owners, trainers and jockeys similar to the rankings published for tennis players and golfers. It could be argues that the international classifications, based on handicap ratings, are more authoratiive, but the TRC rankings are also of great interest and certainly relevant to German racing.

The latest updaste this week lists for example Godolphin as leading owners, Charlie Appleby as top trainer, Dubawi as top sire and William Buick as most successful jockey. The first three of these have been in this position for ages, but Buick tops the list for the first time. This follows an extremely successful week for the Godolphin operation, with Group One winners all over, and ending with last Sunday´s Preis von Europa at Cologne. This race used to be the most valuable event in Germany; this is no longer the case, but it is still a proper Group One and last week´s edition had a strong field. In the event it certaAinly confirmed the TRC ratings, as the winner Rebel´s Romance is a 4yo Dubawi gelding trained by Appleby, ridden by Buick, and owned and bred by Godolphin.

At the start of 2022 Rebel´s Romance would certainly not have been regarded as one of the brightest stars in the Godolphin galaxy. At that stage he had won four of his seven starts, all on the all-weather, including the UAE Derby, a nice race to win but hardly one of the world´s great classics. However he has been a revelation this year since being switched to turf. He is now unbeaten in four starts in 2022, including two German Group Ones, the Grosser Preis von Berlin and now the Preis von Europa. Although there is a tendency to underrate German form, it should be remembered that Alpinista won both these races last year and she is now disputing favouritism for Sunday´s Arc – a race won last year by Torquator Tasso, who had won the Hoppegarten race in 2020.

Rebel´s Romance started as clear favourite on Sunday, although the opposition was certainly stronger than it had been at Hoppegarten. Also the good to soft going was not ideal and there were reports that he had had an uncomfortable journey over – although these proved to be exaggerated. But least there was a bigger field than there had been at Baden-Baden and the front-running filly Alaskasonne (Soldier Hollow) set a decent pace. Buick was in no hurry to get involved, and Rebel´s Romance was almost last coming into the straight. However once the jockey got serious, the gelding quickened in excellent style, oming with a strong run on tnher inside to lead one out and score by three parts of a length from Sammarco, who ran another excellent race and has been a remarkably consistent performer this year. He tried to mount a challenge, but Rebel´s Romance was always going better and in the end held him easily enough. Amazing Grace (Protectionist), who had been runner-up to Sammarco in Munich in the summer and up to her best form in third, while Assistent (Sea The Moon), who had been fourth to Sammarco in the Derby, kept on for fourth place again.

Altogether the form has a very solid look, and it has to be said that the form of the top German races has worked out very well this year. The handicapper has raised Rebel´s Romance to GAG 98 ½ (= international 117, and up six pounds from his rating pre-Hoppegarten). He has improved with every start this season and could well improve still further. As a gelding he is likely to stay in training, but he clearly prefers fast ground; it is therefore extremely unlikely that he will run in Europe again this year, and starts in the USA are under consideration, including the Breeders´ Cup Turf.

It was a good day for British raiders at Cologne, as the other black type race, the listed Winterkönigin Trial for 2yo fillies, was won by the Mark and Charlie Johnston-trained Sirona (Soldier Hollow), who made all the running and scored very easily. She was bred by Gestüt Hof Iserneichen and was a 52,000 euros BBAG yearling. Sirona is also entered in the Group Three Ratibor-Rennen at Krefeld in November, often the best German 2yo race of the year, but it is unclear whether she will return to Germany for that.

This coming weekend is going to be qjuite busy, with racing at Honzrath on Friday, at Mülheim on Saturday (including the listed Silbernes Band der Ruhr, at 4000 metres Germany´s longest flat race), at Hanover (with a listed race) and Düsseldorf (with a Group Three) on Sunday, and another group race at Hoppegarten on Monday, a German bank holiday celebrating German reunification.

However all this pales into relative insignificance compared to the Arc weekend in ParisLongchamp, when eight Group One and three Group Two races will be run, including Europe´s richest and most prestigious race, the Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe. A lot will depend on the weather in Paris, as the long summer has ended and there is plenty of rain about. It is almost certain to be soft but the question is, how soft? Last year there was heavy rain and the resulting heavy ground on the Sunday was greatly to the advantage of Torquator Tasso, who scored at 80-1 for Mülheim trainer Marcel Weiss. Torquator Tasso will be trying to repeat that victory, but this time he will be one of the favourites. He has been trained all year with this race in mind, but he has been unlucky with the draw; he will start from box 18 of 20 runners, and while this not rule out his chance of winning, it certainly makes it tougher. However all has gone well with his preparation, the trainer is making very optimistic noises and of course we have not forgotten how Frankie Dettori, who will be in the saddle, won the Arc from a bad draw with Golden Horn in 2015.

There is another German runner in the Arc and this one must also have a decent chance. Mendocino (also by Adlerflug) is trained in Munich by Sarah Steinberg and the 4yo defeated Torquator Tasso at Baden-Baden last time by a head. Obviously there is little between them and Steinberg is also cautiously optimistic; her charge will be ridden by Rene Piechulek, her partner in real life, who was aboard Torquator Tasso last year. He also has a tricky draw, in the no. 1 box; at Baden-Baden he was held up in last place, but these tactics will probably not work from this draw in a field of 20. However he seems certain to give a good account of himself.

Then there is Mare Australis (Australia), who is trained by Andre Fabre in Chantilly but is German-owned and-bred (Gestüt Schlenderhan) Fabre is the most successful trainer in the history of the race and won it 3 years ago with another German-owned runner, Waldgeist. Fabre has booked Gertman champion jockey Bauryzhan Murzabayev to ride, apparently this was the trainer´s own idea, and he also appeals as an interesting outsider. Soft ground would be no problem, but he also has a bad outside draw (19).

Of course Alpinista (Frankel) also has a great chance for owner-breeder Kirsten Rausing and trainer Sir Mark Prescott. She has won her last seven races, including three German Group Ones last year, and the safest option to run into the money. This admirable mare has won on the soft, although really heavy going might be a problem. She also has an ideal draw in 6. Last year she defeated both Torquator Tasso and Mendocino, and victory for her would indirectly upgrade her German performances of 2021.

Of course the Arc weekend is not just the one race – as mentioned above, there are 7 other Group One races. We are especially interested in Sunday´s Prix Marcel Boussac for 2yo fillies, in which Gestüt Fährhof´s homebred Habana (Kingman) will line up for trainer Andreas Wöhler. This looks a really strong reunion with several dangerous contenders from the U.K. and Ireland, but Habana has won both her starts very impressively and is the best German2yo filly for many years. Connections are hoping the rain stays away (it can start again after the race with Arc due off 75 minutes later) and if so she can run a big race. There are several more runners with German connections running in the other top races and we hope to be able to report at least one German winner in next week´s English page.

David Conolly-Smith